New Challenge Awaits

Barack Obama must now win over all those doubted him, if he is truly to be the uniting piece that our country has long sought. While the election was considered a landslide, more than 40 percent of people still voted for the opposing candidate.

No Change in This State

Once again Pennsylvania goes Democratic, and this time so does America. Starting out as a long shot candidate in a party that was more than likely going to elect another Clinton as their potential presidential candidate, Obama came to the forefront and won this election in a landslide. Winning by more than 11 percent in a state, Pennsylvania, that was supposed to be a contest just goes to show how big of a landslide this election truly was. Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and the Democrats were able to mobilize and energize voters across the nation and it sure paid off. Congratulations and best of luck.

As Expected, Problems at the Polls

Lines that run more than two or three hours long and polling sites that run out of ballots, what has our political process come to? I don't know how someone can take a few hours out of their day to wait in line to vote, but it is absolutely absurd that in our democracy that people must wait this long. As an American citizen it is our right to be able to vote. And how are we expected to vote if our polling sites run out of ballots? These seem like some genuinely standard things but after all this time we still cannot get it right. Maybe in four year?

Politcs At Its Worst

Propoganda has appeared on the streets of Philadelphia, some of it stating that election day is on Wednesday Novermber 5th. Other information has been released throughout the mostly black neighborhoods of Philadelphia stating that if a voter has a past criminal record they will be detained and jailed at the polling location. This type of advertisement is a last minute effort by Republicans to disrupt the political system in order to gain an advantage in a state they trail. This just goes to show how scary politics really has become.

Palin in the Small Towns of Pennsylvania

Republican Vice Presidential candidate Sarah Palin will spend her Halloween day campaigning in the smaller more rural areas of Pennsylvania. In the morning she went to Latrobe, PA and talked about how Barack Obama will increase taxes for middle Americans, and how the democratic presidential candidate will limit cut military spending by more than a quarter. Palin used these two issues in an attempt to scare voters away from Obama. This has been a common tactic for both parties and all candidates but we greatly see this type of negative campaigning towards the opposing candidate coming from governor Palin.
Another interesting tactic by the Republican campaign was the use of former NFL star Mike Ditka. He is a very known and well liked former University of Pittsburgh player who grew up in a small suburban town just outside of Pittsburgh. On Friday in Latrobe he openly explained his endorsement of Sarah Palin and the GOP ticket. Using this type of figure in western Pennsylvania is very smart because of Mike Ditka's general appeal to the public. Whether we like it or not, social figures in our society do persuade voters politically. Going on with the GOP attempt to energize middle class white voters, Sarah Palin will be campaigning in York Pennsylvania by the end of the day.

Talking About Issues...For Once

On Tuesday, both presidential candidates were campaigning in the state of Pennsylvania and the hot topic of the day was health care reform and income taxes. While campaigning in Chester, PA Barack Obama attacked John McCain's health care plan by saying, "it's radical and it's unaffordable." McCain responded by attacking the democratic candidate's agenda to increase the size of government by spending more money that will be collected from an increase in income taxes. The income tax references set off the Obama camp, and they came back with their same response, that their tax plan would not raise taxes for anyone making less than $200,000 a year. The McCain camp chose to reference a Joe Biden quote, in which the senator said that the cut off for an increase in taxes was at $150,000, thus trying to prove that Democrats continually lower the income level in which they will tax. This continual response of opposing candidates is exactly what elections are supposed to entail, but the real differences this time is that we are not talking about the amount of money spent on a candidates wardrobe or the type of cars candidates drive, instead this time the real issues that will affect Americans are those being discussed. It only took three months but now we are finally getting down to what will ultimately determine our future as a country, and these types of things ane what voters should base their reasoning off of, not the freak show that we have seen in the media since day one. To all voters who have not made up their minds, and even to those who have, issues matter and nothing else.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/28/campaign.wrap/index.html

Must Win for McCain

Former Pennsylvania Governor, Tom Ridge, has publicly stated that, "Unless we win Pennsylvania, I don't think he (John McCain) is elected." This is a bold statement from a former governor that knows his state has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since the time before he himself was in office. Currently in Pennsylvania, polls show Obama with an 8 to 13 percent lead over McCain. But even with the substantial leads in most polls, the current Governor, Ed Rendell, has asked Obama, Hillary, and Bill Clinton to make appearances over the last eight days of the campaign. And Obama himself has schedule two stops in Pennsylvania for the upcoming week. These stops were added just this past weekend by his campaign in order to assure the Democratic candidate the electoral votes of this large swing state.
However, the McCain campaign has already planned for its own final push and has scheduled both McCain and Palin in at least two stops apiece during the last days of campaigning. While both parties' events are anticipated to have high attendances the reality that any voters will be swayed over the last view days is very minimal. The purpose of the final rallies is to reinforce the importance to people that they must show up at the polls on Election Day.

ACORN Fraud, So What?

Allegations of fraudulent voter registration by ACORN organizers has made its way to the state of Pennsylvania. While it is only one man charged with a mere 18 illegal voter registrations, it still reflects poorly on the process by which this organization has been registering voters. Although 18 appears to be a small number, who really knows how many of the 140,000 newly registered voters that ACORN claims they have signed up are in fact registered legally by this organization. The efforts of ACORN will not go without recognition but just as in all aspects of life, there are going to be people willing to break laws and morals in order to achieve what they believe is the ultimate goal. One man, or a small percentage of people may be blinded by the true reasons for their efforts, and this small group of citizens may make mistakes but we must not forget all the efforts of the outstanding citizens that were able to register millions of new voters legally. ACORN has taken credit for about 20% of the newly registered voters in Pennsylvania ,which amounts to 140,000 of 620,000. While media stresses a minute number of illegal registrations we cannot forget the efforts of those that volunteered their time or worked for near minimum wage in order for others to receive and realize their rights as American citizens.

http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2008/10/exacorn_worker_charged_with_fo.html

Bradley Effect?

As we all known Barack Obama racially is half African-American and this fact has been and will continue to be a factor in his presidential election. As of today, Obama has a lead of about 8 percentage points in all national polls. If the election were held today, based on all the polls Obama would win in a landslide. The only problems with this is that the statistics are just polls, not actual votes. What concerns the Obama camp and most Democrats for the matter, is not Obama's large lead in the polls but rather something known as the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley, an African American man, ran for governor of California in 1982. In all the polls leading up to the election Bradley was way out in front of his opponents. However, on election day Tom Bradley lost to an Armenian Republican by the name of George Deukmejian, who on a side note was close personal friends with my late Armenian grandmother and great uncle. But anyways, it was thought and later proven that people had stated in polls that they would vote for Bradley when in reality they has no intentions of doing so, these voters were mostly white. The thought was that because of his race these white voters, many of them democrats, voted against party line in order to vote with their race. The question today is that 26 years later have we moved past incidences like the Bradley one, or will people vote in alliance with the race and party? Here is an example and opinion of a possible Bradley Effect that took place in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzvVYzmWmME

Why Continue?

With polls showing a double digit lead for Obama in Pennsylvania and McCain continually losing ground in other must win swing states including Florida and Ohio, is there even a race left in Pennsylvania? The McCain camp believes there is still a battle to be had. The Obama camp has registered more than a half million voters in Pennsylvania over the last year and continues to campaign in the metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Throughout September McCain had been outspending Obama in television advertisements but in the first week of October McCain spent his usual $1.6 million while Obama more than doubled his previous expenditures by pouring $2.2 million into television advertising. While McCain has spent more time in Pennsylvania than Obama since the party conventions, Obama has used his allies and veep candidate to effectively campaign in the mostly white suburban and working class areas of the state. Both Bill and Hillary Clinton have been campaigning throughout the state with the most recent events taking place in Scranton, the most populous city in Northeastern Pennsylvania

Latest Poll

On September 29th Fox News/Rasmussen Reports showed Obama led McCain by eight percentage points in Pennsylvania. What makes this report even more interesting is that only two weeks before on September 14th Obama and McCain were in a virtual tie, with both receiving about 47% of overall support in Pennsylvania This substantial surge by the Obama campaign atests to the success of Obama's campaign in Pennsylvania. However, this recent surge for Obama in Pennsylvania might just be a reflection of his nation success, where he too has widened his percentage lead over McCain. The main reason for Obama's recent success can be attributed to the economic turmoil and 52% of Pennsylvanians believe that Obama is best able to handle the economy, while only 39% favor McCain. At this point in the election McCain will not be able to change the perception that he is weaker when it comes to the economy. He must rally people around other issues including foreign policy and national security. In Pennsylvania he is seen as the stronger candidate on both of those issues. New voting statistics in Pennsylvania will be interesting to see since the $700 billion bail out plan passed. This might turn voters attention away from the economy being that Congress has taken the initiative to handle the economic crisis. If the focus does turn away from the economy there will be a difference in the polls. That difference is something that John McCain is counting on in order to competitive in Pennsylvania and the other swing states.

Complete Rasmussen Report latest Pennsylvania poll can be found at
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/election_2008_pennsylvania_presidential_election2

Advertising

"No coal plants in America, we're not supporting clean coal." A quote from Joe Biden that has been used in most recent radio advertisments in many swing states with coal mines, including Pennsylvania. The advertisement also goes on to state that Obama, Biden and their liberal allies opposed and even blocked offshore drilling. The purpose of the ad is to show that Democrats have there own agenda and that they lack a concern for employment and energy independence. Also stated in the radio ad was that democrats put their special interests before the interests of the country. This type of advertising can be very effective because it portrays the opposing party in manner that does not reflect what America needs or wants. While this radio ad may be very effective in reality it does not tell the full truth. Joe Biden did say that he opposes coal plants in America but he denounced that statement soon after he spoke. Also, it is on record that Barack Obama is in support of the clean coal movement and he while he did oppose offshore drilling in the past he now supports lifting the ban on offshore drilling. This radio ad clearly shows that any remarks a candidate may make can twisted and manipulated into an advertisement. And this ad in particular is effective in a state like Pennsylvania because of its close ties to the coal industry. The Republican party and John McCain are on the offense in key swing states and advertisments like this help to derail possible Obama supporters

Link to radio advertisment
http://weblogs.newsday.com/news/local/longisland/politics/blog/2008/09/audio_mccainpalin_on_coal.html

Joe Biden to the Rescue?

The only one of the four candidates hardly mentioned in main stream news media may have an effect on the outcome in Pennsylvania. Joe Biden was born in Scranton, Pa and remained there until the age of 10 when his father, a working class man, could no longer find employment. The economic hardships that forced the Biden family to move from Pennsylvania could be connected to the current economic despair. This type of relation between a candidate and present circumstances is important because voters want to relate on a more personal level with a candidate and Joe Biden, the unknown candidate, needs to exploit this relation if he is to do his job in controlling key northwest swing states. Biden is a great small town meeting campaigner and has been able to connect with voters in those meetings. This style of campaigning Will be needed if the Democrats are to control Pennsylvania yet again. The areas of concern within the state come in the more rural and white working class sectors. With regards to the rural, Joe Biden may not be the guy, but he can and should absolutely play upon his own middle class upbringing and the fact that he and his family had gone through similar economic hardships that face many Americans, and Pennsylvanians today.

Obama on small town America

Back in April 2008, before the democratic primary election in Pennsylvania, Barack Obama made a few comments over the phone that he may still have to pay up to in the general election.
Obama was quoted as saying residents of small town America, "cling to their guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren't like them." This statement insulted much of the state's rural residents and ultimately led to the primary victory of Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania. What really angered Pennsylvanians was that just before the controversial statement Obama mentioned that there is bitterness in small towns across Pennsylvania specifically and included the rest of the Midwest. Both Hillary Clinton and John McCain had immediate responses to Obama's comments. At the time McCain choose to spin Obama"s comments in a way to make the Illinois senator appear out of touch with the working classes of America. This spin of things may have some truth to it, as many of Obama's supporters within the Democratic party consist of the highly educated and wealthy voters. Clinton was considered to have a stronghold within the working class on the Democratic Party. This issue of Obama being out of touch with the working class is bound to come up within the race in Pennsylvania.

Mayfair Philadelphia

Most people outside of the northeast political world may have never heard of a neighborhood in Philadelphia called Mayfair. However, this mostly white, working-class neighborhood located in the northeastern part of Philadelphia could be the key to John McCain's victory in Pennsylvania. In 2004 John Kerry won the city of Philadelphia but a little more than 400,000 votes and eventually went on to win Pennsylvania by a margin of about 100,000 votes. As for the 2008 election, it has been said that Barack Obama will need to Philadelphia by at least 350,000 votes in order to win the state. In 2004 John Kerry won the neighborhood of Mayfield by a 15 point margin but Republicans are encouraged by what they saw during the Democratic primary race in April. There was very strong support for Hillary Clinton in the neighborhood, receiving 75% of the primary votes. This shows that there is a low support for Obama in this area and that McCain may have the chance to capitalize on the Democrats who aren't "sold" on Obama yet. The McCain campaign set up their Philadelphia headquarters in Mayfair hoping to capitalize on the larger northeastern part of Philadelphia that has a population of about 400,000. Another bright spots for Republicans is the fact in 2004 George Bush was highly criticized in Mayfair and the rest of Philadelphia but John McCain is seen as a more moderate with better policies that immediately keep with problems such as: high gas and health care costs. After all that being said, Obama's choice to have Joe Biden on the ticket with him, has increased the Democrats connection and strength within the entire Northeast. The race for Pennsylvania may lie in this one small but meaning Philadelphia neighborhood.

Backround

Since the 1992 general election the majority in Pennsylvania have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee. Bill Clinton won the nomination in 1992 and 1996 by large margins. However the democractic nominee won the last two elections by a much smaller margain, with most recently John Kerry winning by about 200,000 votes or a little more than 2% of the vote.

Democractic strongholds are located in and around the metropolitan areas of Philadelphia and Pittsburg. The tradition strongholds of the Republic party remain in the more rural and smaller suburban areas located in the northern and central party of the state. The resulting political map of Pennsylvania ends up appearing like a red "T" in the middle with Pittsburg and Philadelphia located in the southwest and southeastern corners representing the blue portions of the state.

Because of Pennsylvania's has no real clear dominant party and it is the 6th most populus state in the union it has been and will continue to be a battle ground swing state for the general election.